Doug Johnson
Wednesday, October 15, 2008 - 4:30-5:00
Successful management of invasive plants depends on "early detection and rapid response." For detection to be most effective, land managers need to predict what new invasive plant species are likely to spread into their area. This can be especially challenging in an area with many diverse ecoregions like California. The California Invasive Plant Council is addressing this need by: (1) collecting coarse distribution and spread data statewide; (2) pairing this with suitability data generated through climate-matching with known distribution worldwide (using CLIMEX); and (3) generating maps and county watch lists. (We included a simple climate change scenario in step 2 to gauge the attendant shift in suitability distribution.) These products are intended to aid local land managers in predicting which plants are most likely to spread into their area based on climatic suitability and current proximity. The maps also support development of statewide and regional strategies for addressing invasive plant populations, because leading edge, core infestation, and outlier areas can be identified, along with vulnerable uninvaded areas. We are sharing the information through the state’s forty local Weed Management Area groups, which collectively engage a broad network of land management entitites throughout the state. Having conducted the initial pilot program for a set of 36 species, we are pursuing funds to extend the project to include our full inventory of 191 species.
Keywords: RISK ASSESSMENT, INVASIVE PLANT MAPPING, PREDICTIVE MODELING